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**** Replication for Appendix B of "Sanctions Removal in the Shadow of Bargaining Problems" ****

**** Author: Menevis Cilizoglu ****

**** Journal: Foreign Policy Analysis ****

**** Date Last Modified: 09/16/2022 ****

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*Opening up data [please change the filepath/ working directory]

use "/Users/menevisc/Dropbox/Sanctions Removal Revisions_FPA/data for R&R/Cilizoglu_FPA_ReplicationData.dta", clear

log using "Cilizoglu_FPA_log_appendix.smcl", replace


*** Table S1: Probit: Sanctions Removal 

* Table S1; M1: Full Model
probit lift fraction_reported tradechange_div c.fraction_reported#c.tradechange_div tradedep multiissue multisender s2un jointigo cinct_s newsupport_s t t2 t3, robust cluster(targetstate)

* Table S1; M2: High c_s dropped
probit lift fraction_reported tradechange_div c.fraction_reported#c.tradechange_div tradedep multiissue multisender s2un jointigo cinct_s newsupport_s t t2 t3 if cost_s==0, robust cluster(targetstate)

*** Figure S1: Histogram of Information - HRV Transparency Index
hist fraction_reported

*** Table S2: Probit: Sanctions Removal - Cases with No Recorded End Dates

probit lift_ongoing2 fraction_reported tradechange_div c.fraction_reported#c.tradechange_div tradedep multiissue multisender s2un jointigo newsupport_s cinct_s iyear_ongoing2 t2_liftongoing2 t3_liftongoing2 if cost_s==0, robust cluster(targetstate)

*** Table S3: Sanctions Removal: Accounting for Short-Lived Episodes

probit lift3 fraction_reported tradechange_div c.fraction_reported#c.tradechange_div tradedep multiissue multisender s2un jointigo newsupport_s cinct_s iyear_3 t2_lift3 t3_lift3 if cost_s==0, robust cluster(targetstate)

*** Table S4: Rare Events Logistic Regression: Sanctions Removal

gen inter=fraction_reported*tradechange_div

relogit lift fraction_reported tradechange_div inter tradedep multiissue multisender s2un jointigo newsupport_s cinct_s t t2 t3 if cost_s==0, cluster(targetstate)

*** Table S5: Probit: Sanctions Removal - with and without Clustering

*Model 1 - with clustered S.E.
probit lift fraction_reported tradechange_div c.fraction_reported#c.tradechange_div tradedep multiissue multisender s2un jointigo cinct_s newsupport_s t t2 t3, robust cluster(targetstate)
*Model 2 - without clustered S.E. 
probit lift fraction_reported tradechange_div c.fraction_reported#c.tradechange_div tradedep multiissue multisender s2un jointigo cinct_s newsupport_s t t2 t3

*** Table S6: Sanctions Removal: Accounting for "Final Outcome"
probit lift fraction_reported tradechange_div c.fraction_reported#c.tradechange_div tradedep multiissue multisender s2un jointigo cinct_s newsupport_s t t2 t3 if finaloutcome!=8 & cost_s==0, robust cluster(targetstate)

*** Table S7: Sanctions Removal: Accounting for Global Trade
 probit lift fraction_reported tradechange_worldmean_div c.fraction_reported#c.tradechange_worldmean_div tradedep multiissue multisender s2un jointigo cinct_s newsupport_s t t2 t3 if cost_s==0, robust cluster(targetstate)

*** Table S8: Sanctions Removal: Examining Outliers
*mean+2ds=24 (for the "Change in T's Trade Volume" variable. 

probit lift fraction_reported tradechange_div c.fraction_reported#c.tradechange_div tradedep multiissue multisender s2un jointigo newsupport_s cinct_s t t2 t3 if cost_s==0 & tradechange_div<24, robust cluster(targetstate)

*** Figure S2: Leverage vs. Residual Squared Plot
regress lift fraction_reported tradechange_div c.fraction_reported#c.tradechange_div tradedep multiissue multisender s2un jointigo newsupport_s cinct_s t t2 t3 if cost_s==0

lvr2plot, mlabel(caseid)

*** Table S9: Probit: Sanctions Removal - High Residual/High Leverage Cases Dropped

* Model 1:
probit lift fraction_reported tradechange_div c.fraction_reported#c.tradechange_div tradedep multiissue multisender s2un jointigo newsupport_s cinct_s t t2 t3 if cost_s==0 & caseid!=1959061101, robust cluster(targetstate)

* Model 2:
probit lift fraction_reported tradechange_div c.fraction_reported#c.tradechange_div tradedep multiissue multisender s2un jointigo newsupport_s cinct_s t t2 t3 if cost_s==0 & caseid!=1992070203 & caseid!= 1994072901 & caseid!=2003030501 & caseid!=1959061101, robust cluster(targetstate)

*** Table S10: Cox Proportional Hazard Regression: Duration until Sanctions End

stset, clear
stset t, failure(lift) id(caseid)

*Cox Model 1
stcox fraction_reported tradechange_div c.fraction_reported#c.tradechange_div tradedep multiissue multisender s2un jointigo cinct_s newsupport_s, vce(cluster targetstate) nohr

*Cox Model 2
stcox fraction_reported tradechange_div c.fraction_reported#c.tradechange_div tradedep multiissue multisender s2un jointigo cinct_s newsupport_s if cost_s==0, vce(cluster targetstate) nohr

*** Figure S3: Effect of Change in T's Trade and Information on the Duration of Sanctions
stcurve, survival at1(fraction_reported=0.9 tradechange_div=-10) at2(fraction_reported=0.9 tradechange_div=10) at3(fraction_reported=0.9 tradechange_div=30) at4(fraction_reported=0.9 tradechange_div=50) range(0 10)

stcurve, survival at1(fraction_reported=0.25 tradechange_div=-5) at2(fraction_reported=0.5 tradechange_div=-5) at3(fraction_reported=0.75 tradechange_div=-5) at4(fraction_reported=1 tradechange_div=-5)range(0 10)


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